SPC MD 1696

MD 1696 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 491… FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

MD 1696 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Areas affected...Parts of the western Florida Panhandle and adjacent
portions of southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 491...

Valid 161553Z - 161800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 491 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for at least short-lived tornadoes probably
will increase across and inland of the Emerald Coast and Big Bend
vicinity through early to mid afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Even as Sally undergoes considerable weakening through
the day, the core of stronger southerly flow above the boundary
layer, to the east of the circulation center, will remain
sufficiently strong to contribute to large, clockwise curved
low-level hodographs.  This is expected to maintain support for
occasional strengthening of low-level mesocyclones within
intensifying updrafts embedded within several ongoing convective
bands only very slowly shifting eastward across the western Florida
Panhandle vicinity.

Potential for tornadoes associated with these low-level mesocyclones
appears to be increasing as surface dew points climb through the
mid/upper 70s across areas near and west of the Florida Big Bend. 
This may be boosted further through this afternoon, with at least
weak boundary-layer warming east of/between convective bands.

Across and north of the Alabama/Georgia state border vicinity,
potential for tornadoes remains more uncertain, due to very slow
east/northeastward movement of Sally, and the lingering presence of
at least somewhat cooler/drier boundary-layer air associated with
the southwestern periphery of eroding cold surface ridging to the
lee of the Appalachians.

..Kerr.. 09/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   31058589 30898499 30748438 30298411 29688457 29678528
            30248615 30648648 31058589 

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