SPC Aug 2, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY...
Some tornado threat will be possible from eastern North Carolina
into southern New England Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association
with Isaias. A few severe thunderstorms will also be possible across
portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Eastern NC into Southern New England...
T.C. Isaias is currently forecast to be centered over eastern NC
Tuesday morning and accelerate northeastward into New England by
Wednesday morning. If the track is far enough inland, convection
within a strong low-level shear environment will support some
tornado threat for at least coastal regions of the Mid Atlantic into
southern New England. Some organized convection will also be
possible earlier in the period downstream of Isaias, as tropical
moisture streams northward into a region of moderate mid/upper-level
southwesterly flow associated with the persistent upper trough.
While this scenario is more uncertain, some threat for locally
damaging wind or a brief tornado may evolve within this regime as
well. Some portion of this region may eventually require Slight
Risk-equivalent probabilities, once confidence increases in details
regarding the track, timing, and intensity of Isaias as it
accelerates northeastward. ...Northern/central High Plains...
Low-level moisture will begin to return to a larger portion of the
High Plains on Tuesday. As this occurs, steep midlevel lapse rates
will support the development of moderate buoyancy, and scattered
thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon. While initial
development will likely be near higher terrain, northwesterly
midlevel flow will support southeastward-moving convection, with
sufficient effective shear for a few organized cells or clusters
into a larger region of the High Plains. Hail and locally severe
wind gusts will be the primary threats. Some upscale growth and/or
development of elevated convection will be possible into late
Tuesday night within a warm advection regime across the central High
Plains, which may continue to pose a threat for localized severe
wind or hail. ..Dean.. 08/02/2020 

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