SPC Aug 2, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL MT...SOUTHEAST WY INTO EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST
NM...PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...EASTERN
SC/NC... ...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and
evening from portions of the Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic, and
also across portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. A
couple tornadoes will be possible across eastern portions of the
Carolinas associated with Isaias, mainly Monday evening into Monday
night. ...Portions of the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic...
A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow is forecast to
persist from portions of the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic on
Monday, along the eastern flank of the persistent upper trough. As
rich low-level moisture streams northward in advance of T.C. Isaias,
pockets of moderate instability may develop prior to the development
of increasingly widespread convection by late Monday
afternoon/evening. Effective shear of 25-40 kt will support the
potential for some organized convection, with a threat of locally
damaging wind. ...Coastal SC into eastern NC...
Based on the current forecast track of Isaias (refer to NHC for more
information), the favored eastern semicircle will begin to spread
over coastal regions of SC by late afternoon/evening, and into a
larger portion of eastern NC by Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. Since the primary risk is expected during the latter half
of the period and uncertainty remains regarding the extent of
sufficient instability inland to support a tornado threat, 2%
tornado probabilities have been maintained, though an upgrade
remains possible in subsequent updates depending on the track and
intensity of Isaias. ...Southwest into central Montana...
A vigorous shortwave trough is forecast to move into the northern
Rockies on Monday, which will dampen the upper ridge that has
persisted over the West. Scattered thunderstorm development is
expected Monday afternoon from southwest into central MT, in
conjunction with this shortwave trough. Weak to locally moderate
buoyancy, steep low/midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear of
30-40 kt will support a few organized cells and/or clusters which
could pose a threat of hail and severe wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms will again be
possible across portions of the central/southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains, within a persistent northwesterly flow regime.
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor a
couple supercells and potentially a few clusters, with a
corresponding risk of hail and locally severe wind gusts. ..Dean.. 08/02/2020 

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