SPC Aug 2, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible this
evening, centered on portions of the Upper Ohio Valley into the
northern Virginia and western Maryland vicinity. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over the OH Valley, ejecting northeast. Weak surface cyclone
will track northeast ahead of this feature across OH before lifting
north of the international border into ON by daybreak. This movement
should allow surface warm front to advance north across the
remainder of MD and much of PA where low-level flow is decidedly
easterly at this time. Scattered convection persists across the warm
sector ahead of the surface low where modest buoyancy continues;
however, air mass is not particularly unstable north of the warm
front, and sunset will not prove beneficial for much
destabilization, despite the warm front lifting north. While
thunderstorms will continue to focus along/just south of the warm
front, updrafts may not prove that robust as 02/00z soundings across
this region exhibit poor lapse rates and a modest wind field. For
these reasons, gusty winds will continue to be the primary threat,
although a brief tornado can not be ruled out, especially along/near
the warm front. ...Southern Rockies... Isolated high-based thunderstorms persist across the southern
Rockies this evening. Gusty winds are the primary threat with
convection for the next few hours, especially across southern NM
into southeast AZ where buoyancy and PW is somewhat greater. Loss of
daytime heating will weaken these updrafts and the severe threat
should diminish. ..Darrow.. 08/02/2020 

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