SPC Aug 1, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST PA
INTO CENTRAL NY... ...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes will be possible over portions of the Northeast
on Sunday. ...Synopsis...
Minimal change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Sunday,
with an upper trough remaining over much of the central/eastern
CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over most of the West. A
midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface low in the lower
Great Lakes vicinity at the start of the period are forecast to move
northeastward into Quebec by Monday morning. T.C. Isaias is
currently forecast by NHC to move very near the FL Space Coast by
Sunday morning and then move nearly parallel to the coast for much
of the period. ...Northeast...
Moderate destabilization near and south of the surface warm front,
combined with veering wind profiles with 35-50 kt of effective
shear, will result in a conditionally favorable environment for
supercells across much of central/eastern PA/NY and northern NJ by
Sunday afternoon. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding
storm coverage across the region with the most favorable
environment. Large-scale ascent associated with the departing
shortwave trough is expected to primarily remain north of the
international border, with a capping inversion around 700 mb
potentially limiting deep convection across much of the warm sector. At least isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along an
eastward-moving surface trough Sunday afternoon. All hazards would
be possible with any sustained deep convection. A Slight Risk has
been introduced from northeast PA into central NY, where confidence
in storm coverage is somewhat greater due to potentially stronger
heating and instability compared to areas further north and east. ...Southeast WY...CO...NM...West TX...
North-northwesterly midlevel flow on the east side of the upper
ridge will again result in a broad region from southeast WY into
CO/NM and west TX where effective shear will increase into the 30-45
kt range by afternoon. Instability may be somewhat greater compared
to Saturday, especially into the CO Front Range and adjacent High
Plains where low-level easterly flow will advect 50s F dewpoints
into the area. A few discrete supercells may develop by afternoon
and move south-southeastward, while some loosely organized
southward-moving clusters will also be possible, especially from
southern CO into NM and west TX where storm coverage is expected to
be somewhat greater. Hail and locally severe wind gusts will be the
primary threats with this activity. ...Florida...
The current forecast track of Isaias very near the FL east coast
would keep the most favorable tornado environment offshore through
the period, though any westward deviation and sustained landfall
would bring the threat for a brief tornado or two inland. No
probabilities have been included with this outlook, though any
westward adjustment to the track would require the addition of at
least 2% tornado probabilities in a subsequent update. ..Dean.. 08/01/2020 

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