SPC Jul 9, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Southwest on
D4/Sunday. This ridge is forecast to gradually shift eastward into
the southern Plains while also dampening under the influence of a
large upper cyclone expected to develop over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces. Model guidance shows good consensus that a shortwave trough moving
through the base of this upper cyclone will move across the northern
Plains on D5/Monday. Environment over the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest is currently forecast to support severe thunderstorms, but
more run-to-run model consistency is needed before outlooking an
area. Another shortwave trough may move through this belt of stronger
westerlies on D6/Tuesday, contributing to some severe risk from the
central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. As with the D5/Monday
system, the latest 00Z runs show good consensus. However, previous
runs show significant variability and the predictability remains too
low to delineate an area. 

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