SPC Jun 30, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models are in general agreement that
deamplification of the upper pattern over the U.S. will occur during
the period, though the general flavor of western and eastern U.S.
troughing with an intervening central U.S. ridge should prevail. With that said, subtle features aloft are -- as expected -- handled
quite differently in terms of location/progression which, in turn,
manifests as eventual differences on the larger scales amongst the
models, as the period progresses. At this time, the greatest risk for severe storms appears likely to
remain over the northern U.S. within an anticylonic arc from the
northern Intermountain Region to the Great Lakes. Here, fast
westerly flow on the northern periphery of the central U.S. ridge
will likely prevail, with subtle disturbances ejecting from the
western trough and moving quickly through this flow field, and modulating greater periods of convective/severe potential. However,
with these small-scale disturbances very difficult to quantify in
terms of timing and location -- even with the first of these
features moving through the flow Day 4, whose location and timing
differs amongst the models -- no risk areas will be introduced at
this time. 

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