SPC Jun 30, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MONTANA AND VICINITY...ACROSS THE MINNESOTA AREA...AND WITHIN A
ZONE FROM IOWA/MISSOURI TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY...
A few strong/locally severe storms will be possible over the Montana
area, across portions of Minnesota and vicinity, and from the Mid
MS/lower OH Valley area across the Mid South and Southeast on
Wednesday. ...Synopsis...
A pair of upper lows will continue to reside over the northwestern
and northeastern portions of the U.S., while sharp ridging continues
from central Canada and the Upper Great Lakes region to the southern
Plains. At the surface, a rather weak pattern will prevail. A weak cool
front will cross the Southeast, while a weakening front crosses the
Dakotas through the day. A more prominent baroclinic zone will
affect areas from Montana into the Great Basin through the period. ...Parts of Iowa and northern Missouri to the Southeast states...
Within the broad belt of cyclonic flow aloft surrounding the
Northeast upper low, several small-scale disturbances/vorticity
maxima are expected to move through the moderate northwesterly flow
field. One prominent cluster of storms -- and limited/ongoing
severe risk -- may exist over the Iowa/northern Missouri vicinity
near one of these upper disturbances, which should persist/move
southeastward through the day. Other storms/clusters of storms will
likely develop across the Mid South and Southeast into the afternoon
as the airmass heats/destabilizes. Given ample CAPE development
expected, and the background moderate/near unidirectional flow
through the lower and middle troposphere, a few of the stronger
storms may be capable of producing strong wind gusts -- capable of
mainly tree damage. Storms will likely continue through the evening
-- sagging southward with time across the central Gulf Coast states,
but expect severe risk to gradually wane through the evening hours. ...Parts of Montana into eastern Idaho/northwest Wyoming...
As an initial short-wave trough rotating around the main
southwestern Canada/northwestern U.S. upper low pivots across the
north-central U.S. and into the Canadian Prairie, a second feature
is expected to move across Idaho and western Montana through late
afternoon, and then into central Montana overnight. Though
afternoon destabilization is expected to be quite modest, strong
forcing for ascent should support isolated storm development during
the afternoon and evening, most prominent from Idaho and
northwestern Wyoming into Montana. A belt of moderately strong (around 50 kt) west-southwesterly
mid-level flow atop this region will result in potential for
organization with a couple of the sustained updrafts, along with
fast storm motions. This -- combined with a dry sub-cloud layer
promoting potential for evaporative downdraft enhancement, suggests
potential for a few strong/damaging gusts locally. Risk should
diminish into late evening, as the boundary layer cools/stabilizes. ...Portions of Minnesota and vicinity...
As the upper trough pivots across the north-central states and into
the Canadian Prairie, showers and scattered thunderstorms may
develop from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, near/ahead of the
weakening frontal zone across the region. Modest but sufficient
CAPE in conjunction with southerly mid-level flow near 30 kt
contributing to sufficient shear for multicell storm organization,
suggests some potential for marginal hail and strong wind gusts. As
such, will maintain MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 06/30/2020 

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