SPC May 23, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail and/or damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the middle/upper
Mississippi Valley Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will likely extend from eastern MT southward into
western NM early Monday morning. Eastward progression of this trough
will be impeded by strong subtropical ridging over the eastern
CONUS, but some gradual eastward motion is anticipated. As this
occurs, an upper low is forecast to develop over the southern
Plains. The development of this low combined with the eastern CONUS
ridging will contribute to an eventual split of the upper pattern
into northern and southern streams by early Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from MN
southwestward into southeast NM early Monday.
Southward/southeastward progression of this front is anticipated
throughout the day. Given the widespread thunderstorm activity
expected on Sunday, less low-level moisture will be in place ahead
of the front than previous days. Additionally, cloudy conditions
will stunt diurnal heating and mixing. The end result is a less
unstable pre-frontal air mass. Thunderstorms are still expected
along the front over much of the southern and central Plains, but
limited instability and weak shear should temper overall severe
potential. Farther northeast across the middle and upper MS Valley, stronger
diurnal heating is expected, with highs in the low 80s as far north
as southern WI. More low-level moisture is also anticipated, with
dewpoints around 70 deg F by the late afternoon. These conditions
support moderate to strong instability. The better vertical shear
will be displaced northwest of the better instability, but robust
updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts are
still possible. ..Mosier.. 05/23/2020 

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