SPC MD 235

MD 0235 Image

 Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Areas affected...East-Central KS...Central MO...Southwest IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63... Valid 270620Z - 270745Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63
continues. SUMMARY...Threat for severe hail will continue from far east-central
KS across central MO and into southwest IL for the next several
hours. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over north-central
OK, with a warm front extending east-northeastward across northern
portions of southern MO into southern IL. Surface temperatures south
of the front are generally in the mid 70s, with dewpoints in the low
60s. Advection of this air mass northward across the frontal zone
will provide warm and moist inflow to the ongoing elevated storms,
likely allowing for storm persistence for the next few hours. Overall radar presentation of the ongoing storms has trended less
cellular and more linear, perhaps as a consequence of the strong,
unidirectional vertical shear. Storm motion was estimated easterly
at 50 kt, taking the lead storm into the St. Louis area around
0730-0800Z. Despite the linear storm structure and fast storm
motion, the threat for damaging wind gusts will remain tempered by
low-level stability. As such, the primary threat remains severe
hail. Organized character of these storms will likely lead to
greater longevity than would otherwise by anticipated as they move
into the less-unstable airmass across east-central MO and southwest
IL. ..Mosier.. 03/27/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39129527 39289438 39339227 39188949 38728923 38289007 38119427 38259572 39129527 

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