SPC MD 233

MD 0233 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO WEST-CENTRAL IL
MD 0233 Image

 Mesoscale Discussion 0233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Areas affected...portions of east-central MO into west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261258Z - 261430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated storm or two could produce hail this morning
across east-central MO into west-central IL. DISCUSSION...Isolated, elevated convection is developing this
morning in strong warm advection regime on the nose of a 40+ kt 850
mb low level jet. While the near-surface layer remains dry, midlevel
moisture will continue to increase. Furthermore, this area is on the
edge of a strong EML plume, with midlevel lapse rates around 7.5
C/km per 12z regional RAOBs. Furthermore, the 12z RAOB from SGF
shows strong effective shear and enlarged/lengthened hodographs.
This combination of increasing midlevel moisture and steep midlevel
lapse rates should result in MUCAPE values as high as 500 J/kg
spreading east/northeast across MO/IL the next few hours. As such,
an isolated strong storm capable of small/marginally severe hail is
possible this morning. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/26/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38578973 38099109 38239151 38769187 39239172 39569101 39709012 39558952 38928938 38578973 

Read more

Be the first to comment on "SPC MD 233"

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*