SPC Mar 27, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large to very large hail
are expected tonight from east-central to northeast Kansas into
central Missouri and south central Illinois later this evening and
tonight. A few locally strong wind gusts might also accompany some
of the storms. ...Central Plains into the Midwest regions... This evening a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwest
through southern MO into northern OK where it has stalled. The 00Z
RAOB data show mid 60s F dewpoints advecting northward through the
warm sector beneath warm air at the base of an elevated mixed layer.
The warm sector will remain capped to surface based storm initiation
tonight. However, moisture transport and sloped ascent above the
frontal zone along a strengthening southerly low-level jet will
result in destabilization (1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) and thunderstorm
initiation by late evening across east central or northeast KS.
There is some difference among the CAMS regarding where the zone of
initiation will be. However, given the tendency for warming aloft in
the 800-700 mb layer and strength of the EML, have leaned more
toward the HRRR and have expanded the SLGT risk area farther north
and east with this update. Steep lapse rates, moderate instability
and 50+ kt effective bulk shear through the convective layer should
support elevated supercells capable of large to very large hail as
activity develops eastward overnight. Some upscale growth might
occur later in the evolution, and some storms might also produce a
few instances of locally strong to damaging wind gusts. ..Dial.. 03/27/2020 

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