SPC Mar 26, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
The medium-range models move an upper-level low northeastward across
the Great Lakes region on Sunday as a cold front advances quickly
eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Although a moist
airmass should be in place ahead of the front, instability is
forecast to be relatively weak on Sunday. Thunderstorms may develop
along the front around midday with this convection moving eastward
into the coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Piedmont
of the Carolinas by late afternoon. A marginal wind damage threat
would be associated with the stronger line segments. On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move
into the southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of the system is
expected to increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F across parts
of east Texas. But due to the late moisture return, instability is
forecast to remain weak across the moist sector Monday afternoon. In
spite of this, strong large-scale ascent ahead of the upper-level
trough along with lift from a low-level jet in the Arklatex, should
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Due to the strong
forcing, the development of a severe line segment can not be ruled
out across parts of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. In that
case, wind damage and hail would be possible. At this point,
uncertainty concerning instability and the timing of the upper-level
trough is too great to warrant adding a 15 percent contour. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly into
the Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances eastward across the
Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of
the cold front. A few marginally severe wind gusts may occur in
areas that heat up ahead of the front. However, uncertainty is
substantial concerning the timing of the shortwave trough and cold
front. On Wednesday and Thursday, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to
move eastward across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Some
moisture return will be possible in the southern Plains on Thursday
to the west of this cool airmass. However, model spread is
considerable at this range. Although some solutions suggest a severe
threat can not be ruled out in parts of Texas, instability is
forecast to remain weak suggesting any threat should remain

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