SPC Mar 26, 2020 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail are expected tonight
from southeast/east-central Kansas into central/southern Missouri.
Other strong storms could occur today across parts of the Ohio
Valley. ...Discussion...
Only minor tweaks to the thunder/severe outlook areas appears
necessary at this time, as the overall forecast reasoning appears to
remain valid. A slight northward adjustment to the southern fringe
of the thunder and severe weather across Kansas/Missouri is being
included at this time, but otherwise the outlook remains unchanged. ..Goss.. 03/26/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020/ ...KS/MO area tonight...
A midlevel trough over CA will move eastward to UT/AZ by early
Friday, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected in southeastern
CO. The lee cyclone will induce strengthening southerly low-level
flow and associated moisture advection northward from TX/LA toward
OK/AR and lower OH Valley. The warm sector will likely remain
capped today given a warm elevated mixed layer noted in 12z observed
soundings across the southern Plains, with low-level moisture
expected to spread northward beneath the cap. Boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 60s should reach a slow-moving front near the KS/OK
border by this evening, and sloped ascent atop the frontal surface
will promote elevated thunderstorm development by about 06z across
KS. The storms will subsequently spread eastward into western MO
through 12z. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg rooted near 850 mb,
effective bulk shear in excess of 60 kt, and steep midlevel lapse
rates will favor elevated supercells capable of producing large
hail, and perhaps a few strong/damaging gusts could reach the
surface with storms along the southern edge of the band/cluster. ...OH Valley through this evening...
Elevated convection has formed this morning near Saint Louis in
association with an embedded speed max cresting the low-amplitude
ridge over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley. This system will
progress eastward today across the OH Valley, with warm advection on
the nose of a low-level jet segment focusing additional elevated
thunderstorm development. Isolated large hail will be the main
threat. Some surface destabilization will occur during the
afternoon near the OH River toward southern IN, though the elevated
mixed layer spreading eastward and the relatively late arrival of
richer moisture suggest that surface-based thunderstorms are
unlikely. 

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