SPC Mar 26, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY...
Widespread thunderstorms -- along with potential for mainly hail --
are expected from eastern portions of Kansas eastward across the
Midwest Friday. ...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough over the Intermountain Region is
expected to advance steadily eastward Friday, gradually shifting
into the Plains during the second half of the period. Meanwhile,
ridging will prevail downstream over the eastern half of the
country. At the surface, weak low pressure over the central/southern High
Plains will begin to consolidate over the eastern Colorado area
during the day, and then should deepen and move east/northeast
across Kansas late in the period. As this occurs, a warm front
extending eastward across the Ohio Valley area will drift northward,
while a cold front trailing from the low advances across the central
and southern Plains through the end of the period. ...Eastern Kansas vicinity eastward across the Midwest...
Shallow moisture return is forecast across the southern Plains
region ahead of the advancing upper system, but the warm sector of
the evolving surface cyclone is expected to remain largely capped. While a conditional severe risk is still evident over Oklahoma,
potential for surface-based storm development now appears minimal
due to the capping. Greater potential for a surface-based storm or
two is apparent northward into eastern Kansas, as the surface low
advances toward this area. However, the majority of convective
initiation -- from northeastern Kansas/Missouri/southern Iowa
eastward across the Ohio Valley will remain elevated, within a zone
of low-level warm advection aiding in sustenance of moderate
most-unstable CAPE. Given favorably strong flow across the area, organized/rotating
storms will be possible locally, with potential spreading eastward
across the Ohio Valley with time overnight. Primary risk with the
convection across the entire region will be hail, with
low/conditional risk for strong wind gusts and possibly a tornado
most apparent across western portions of the risk area into
Kansas/northeast Oklahoma during the evening. ..Goss.. 03/26/2020 

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