SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail are expected tonight
from southeast/east-central Kansas into central/southern Missouri.
Other strong storms could occur today across parts of the Ohio
Valley. ...Southeast/east-central Kansas and central/southern Missouri...
A strong belt of southwesterly winds will exist over the region
through tonight, well downstream of a positive-tilt upper-level
trough spreading southeastward over southern California toward the
Lower Colorado River Valley. 12Z observed soundings across much of
the south-central CONUS sampled a strong elevated mixed layer atop
modest quality moisture content. Regardless, some moistening will
occur today as a fetch of southerly low-level winds will transport
moisture northward into areas near and to the south of a wavy
west-to-east front from southern Kansas into Missouri. While the dryline/warm sector is likely to remain capped, a
strengthening low-level jet tonight will contribute to
destabilization and increasing forcing for ascent in the frontal
zone where thunderstorms are expected to develop over
southeast/eastern Kansas and spread into Missouri. Updrafts will
likely be elevated, but effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt
suggests a likelihood of some splitting supercell structures capable
of large hail given a favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Eastern Missouri/Ohio Valley today...
While a cool/stable boundary layer exists across the region this
morning, warm/moist advection will steadily occur today to the
north-northeast of a warm front approaching the Lower Ohio Valley.
Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will also be shifting
eastward on the edge of the southern Plains elevated mixed layer.
Elevated thunderstorms could develop this morning across eastern
Missouri into Illinois, and subsequently spread eastward/increase
this afternoon across parts of Indiana/western Ohio and possibly far
northern Kentucky. Given steepening lapse rates and increasing
moisture above the surface, in conjunction with very strong shear
through the cloud-bearing layer, some of the stronger storms could
produce hail. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 03/26/2020