SPC Mar 26, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
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Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a severe threat will be possible on
Saturday in the Mississippi Valley. The greatest threat for wind
damage and hail will be in Illinois, northeast Louisiana, northern
Mississippi and southeast Arkansas. ...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place Saturday across the
south-central U.S. as an upper-level trough moves through the
southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the southern Plains and Ozarks. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 65 to 70 F
range, will be located across the lower Mississippi Valley.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along and just ahead of the front
by mid to late afternoon, with several multicell line segments
possible. The strongest instability (MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg) is
forecast to develop from northern Louisiana into southeast Arkansas
and northwest Mississippi. This environment should be favorable for
severe storms with wind damage and hail as the primary threats. An
isolated severe threat could also develop further north across
northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee, eastern Missouri and western
Kentucky but weak instability should keep any severe threat
marginal. ...Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the
north-central U.S. on Saturday a southwest mid-level flow remains
over the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A surface low will move
northeastward into the western Great Lakes as a cold front advances
quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts
suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop just to
the southeast of the surface low by afternoon. This pocket of
instability should be associated with surface dewpoints in the mid
60s F. In addition to the moisture and instability, deep-layer shear
is forecast to be very strong due to the presence of a 90 to 110 kt
mid-level jet. Due to these factors, thunderstorms that form along
and ahead of the front will move quickly eastward and should be
associated with a wind damage threat. Hail will also be possible
with the more intense cores. ..Broyles.. 03/26/2020 

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