SPC Mar 26, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a
conditional tornado threat, will be possible Friday evening into the
overnight period in parts of the southern and central Plains. A
marginal severe threat may develop eastward into the Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Southwest mid-level flow will become established across the central
U.S. on Friday as an upper-level trough moves through the Desert
Southwest. Strong moisture advection will take place ahead of the
approaching system in the southern Plains. At the surface, a low
will deepen across southeastern Colorado as a warm front moves
northward into southern Kansas. A dryline will set up in
west-central Oklahoma. Surface dewpoints south of the warm front and
to the east of the dryline should reach the mid to upper 60s F by
late afternoon. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast across
the northwestern edge of the moist sector across the eastern half of
Oklahoma and possibly into far southern Kansas. Thunderstorms appear
likely to first develop along the warm front in southeast Kansas
during the early evening and move east-northeastward into western
and central Missouri. Additional storms may develop to the east of
the dryline, from south-central Kansas southward into north-central
Oklahoma by mid evening. These storms should move east-northeastward
across northeastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas. A capping inversion across much of the moist sector should keep
storm coverage isolated except along the warm front during the
evening. If cells can initiate to the east of the dryline in
north-central Oklahoma, then those storms should become
surface-based. Forecast soundings in north-central Oklahoma at
03Z/Saturday have strong instability with MUCAPE near 3000 J/kg, and
effective shear of 60 to 70 kt. This environment would be favorable
for supercells with large hail. Supercells that become surface-based
should also be associated with a tornado and wind damage threat. The
potential for tornadoes while conditional, should extend eastward
across far northern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. The large hail
threat should be greatest across south-central and southeast Kansas,
near and to the north of the warm front as a cluster of storms
tracks east-northeastward during the evening and early overnight
period. Further east across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday evening. Although
instability should remain relatively weak, strong deep-layer shear
will be in place. For this reason, a marginal wind damage and hail
threat seems likely to develop across parts of the region. This
threat may continue into the early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/26/2020 

Read more

Be the first to comment on "SPC Mar 26, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook"

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*