SPC Mar 26, 2020 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail are expected Thursday
night from southeast and east central Kansas into southwest and west
central Missouri. ...Southeast and east central Kansas through southwest and west
central Missouri... Positive-tilt upper trough will continue southeast through CA,
reaching AZ toward the end of the period. Downstream from this
feature, a broad fetch of southwesterly winds aloft will reside
across the Plains. A cold front will initially stretch from the
Great Lakes southwest through the central Plains. This front will
advance south and likely extend from the OH Valley southwest through
central MO and into southern KS by late Thursday night where it
should stall. A broad fetch of southerly low-level winds will
transport moisture northward today into tonight beneath plume of
steep (7-7.5 C/km) mid level lapse rates contributing to moderate
instability (1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE). Warm air at the base of an
elevated mixed layer will likely result in a substantial cap in the
warm sector. However, a strengthening low-level jet Thursday night
will contribute to destabilization and increasing forcing for ascent
in the frontal zone where thunderstorms are expected to develop over
southeast and east central KS and spread into west central MO.
Updrafts will likely be elevated, but effective bulk shear in
excess of 50 kt suggests likelihood of some splitting supercell
structures capable of large to very large hail given a favorable
thermodynamic environment. ..Dial.. 03/26/2020 

Read more

Be the first to comment on "SPC Mar 26, 2020 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook"

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*