Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement that large-scale
upper troughing will remain over much of the eastern CONUS through
Day 6/Saturday. Persistent low-level offshore flow along the Gulf
Coast will preclude organized severe thunderstorms across the CONUS
from Day 4/Thursday through the upcoming weekend. By Day 7/Sunday, guidance is in reasonable agreement that a highly
amplified upper trough will impact the western states. As a lee
cyclone forms over the southern/central High Plains in response,
low-level moisture return should begin across parts of the southern
Plains. This upper trough/low may eject eastward across the Plains
on Day 8/Monday. Depending on the quality of low-level moisture that
exists ahead of this feature, some severe threat may eventually
develop early next week across parts of the southern/central Plains.
Of course, there are considerable differences in model guidance in
this extended time frame regarding the timing of the upper trough
ejection, as well as its amplitude. This will impact the potential
for substantial low-level moisture return across the
southern/central Plains. Regardless, far too much uncertainty
currently exists to include any probabilities for Day 8/Monday.