SPC Feb 24, 2020 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Wednesday across parts of the
central/southern Florida Peninsula, as well as from North Carolina
into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
A surface cold front will continue its southeastward progress over
the FL Peninsula on Wednesday, with showers and isolated
thunderstorms occurring along/behind the front. Diurnal heating is
expected to occur across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula
ahead of the front, and at least some destabilization appears likely
across this area. However, southwesterly mid/upper-level flow should
largely parallel the surface front. The primary large-scale ascent
associated with an upper trough will also remain displaced far to
the north of this region. And, with only weak low-level convergence
provided by the front itself, the coverage and intensity of
convection that may occur across the warm sector remains
questionable. Therefore, no severe probabilities have been included
across this region for now, even though the overall environment may
conditionally support some severe risk. ...North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
A large-scale upper trough initially centered over the MS Valley
Wednesday morning is forecast to advance towards the East Coast and
New England through the period. An embedded strong mid/upper-level
jet should overspread much of this region by late Wednesday evening.
Some differences exist in model guidance regarding the low-level
mass response to the mid/upper-level forcing. Regardless, a surface
low should form in the vicinity of WV by Wednesday afternoon, and
subsequently develop northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic,
eventually reaching southern New England by the end of the period. Depending on the exact track of this surface low, there is some
chance that near-surface-based thunderstorms could develop across
parts of central/eastern VA, MD, DC, the Delmarva Peninsula, and
perhaps NJ Wednesday evening/night as a cold front associated with
the surface low also shifts eastward. This potential will largely
depend on how much low-level moisture can advance northward ahead of
the front, and whether any convection that can form along the front
can mix the enhanced flow aloft to the surface. At this point, too
much uncertainty exists regarding sufficient instability and surface
low placement to include any severe probabilities for strong to
damaging winds. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2020 

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