SPC Feb 24, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may occur Tuesday from
parts of Florida to the Carolinas. ...Synopsis and Discussion...
Widespread showers and mainly elevated thunderstorms should be
ongoing Tuesday morning from portions of northern FL into the
Carolinas. A strong southwesterly low-level jet supporting this
activity is forecast to shift east and weaken though the day as a
large-scale upper trough continues to amplify from the Plains to the
MS Valley. At the surface, a low initially centered over KY/IN
should occlude and gradually weaken through the period as it
develops very slowly northeastward over the OH Valley. A related
surface cold front is forecast to make only slow southeastward
progress across FL/GA through Tuesday evening. Surface dewpoints are expected to increase generally into the mid
60s from parts of the FL Panhandle into southern GA Tuesday morning.
Forecast soundings from various models suggest that surface-based
thunderstorm potential should remain fairly low, as poor
low/mid-level lapse rates limit instability. Even with widespread
cloud cover, modest diurnal heating should occur across this region
through Tuesday afternoon. A narrow corridor of weak instability
(MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg) may develop ahead of the cold front in
the wake of the morning convection. However, large-scale ascent
aloft will remain nebulous at best where this weak instability
should be present. Somewhat greater thunderstorm chances may focus farther south
Tuesday afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours across
portions of the northern/central FL Peninsula in association with a
southern-stream mid-level jet and the southeastward-moving cold
front. Regardless, instability will probably be even weaker with
southward extent. Severe storm potential still appears too low to
include any probabilities across northern FL/southern GA at this
time. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2020 

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