Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4-5/Mon-Tue -- ArkLaTex to the Deep South Vicinity... Model guidance continues to indicate a pattern conducive to
increasing thunderstorm activity across parts of eastern OK/TX into
the southern/southeastern U.S. on Day 4-5/Mon-Tue. Quasi-zonal flow
will become more amplified as an upper trough over the western
states ejects eastward into the Plains on Monday and pivots
east/northeast on Tuesday. The strongest forcing related to this
system will likely remain across the Midwest, with more subtle upper
forcing further south toward the lower MS Valley region.
Nevertheless, a developing surface low over OK/TX on Monday will
allow rich Gulf moisture to stream northward across the ArkLaTex and
lower MS Valley. Thunderstorm activity is likely ahead of
southeastward advancing cold front from Monday afternoon through
Tuesday. At least low-end severe convection appears possible given
increasing boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer southwesterly flow
aloft. However, confidence in timing and intensity of severe threat
is too low at this time to include severe probabilities. Beyond Tuesday, strong surface high pressure is forecast to build
across much of the CONUS as severe potential appears low.