SPC Feb 14, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2020 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.,
Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion...
Mid-level ridging may remain suppressed across the subtropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and southern Gulf of Mexico into Mexican
Plateau through this period. But, as a polar low reforms to the
northwest of Hudson Bay, and ridging begins to build within the
mid-latitude westerlies across the northeast Pacific, a general
northwesterly to westerly mid-level flow likely will be maintained
across much of Canada and the U.S., with a number of progressive
embedded lower-amplitude waves. One of these perturbations may contribute to increasing large-scale
forcing for ascent within an area of developing southerly return
flow across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Gulf
coastal areas. As the boundary layer gradually modifies over the
northwestern Gulf, moistening within the return flow, above a
residual stable boundary layer across and inland of upper Texas and
Louisiana coastal areas, may become supportive of increasing
convective development by late Saturday night. However, due to
relatively warm mid/upper levels, with weak lapse rates, potential
for the evolution of thermodynamic profiles conducive to charge
separation still appears low, and thunderstorm probabilities will be
maintained at less than 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/14/2020 

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