SPC May 12, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION...
On Wed/D4-Thur/D5, an upper ridge will move east across the Plains,
as a large upper trough develops across the West, with upper low
over the Great Basin. By Fri/D6 into Sat/D7, severe weather appears
likely across parts of the central and southern Plains, as mid to
possibly upper 60s F dewpoints return north aided by a southerly
low-level jet. The ECMWF ensemble has reasonably low spread, and has
a deeper solution with the trough compared to the GFS ensemble
members. In either case, the threat for severe weather is likely to
increase on Fri/D6 into Sat/D7, and 15% probabilities have been
introduced for Fri/D6. Increasing flow aloft with a substantial
low-level jet and moisture should support supercells along the
dryline Fri afternoon and evening. Predictability related to the
previous day's storms, as well as increased model spread, will
preclude a Sat/D7 area farther east. Severe storms are possible as well on Fri/D6 across parts of the
northern Plains, from the Dakotas into Minnesota with an MCS pattern
in a warm advection regime. However, predictability for this
scenario is low at this time. 

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