SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sun May 12 2019 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms producing hail are possible over much of
Nebraska on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion...
Generally dry conditions will persist across much of the East with
an upper low over New England and high pressure extending from the
Appalachians into east Texas. An upper ridge will exist over the
Rockies, and will gradually shift east toward the High Plains.
Northwest flow aloft will extend from the northern Plains to the Mid
Atlantic, maintaining relatively cool temperatures aloft. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F will spread northward across
the central Plains, aided by southerly winds on the west side of the
high. Strong heating will occur over the High Plains, resulting in
perhaps 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across NE, KS, MO and IA. The greatest
threat for a few severe storms will be during the late afternoon
across central NE where steep lapse rates will develop at peak
heating. Weak surface convergence will lead to a few storms capable
of hail as they move southeastward during the evening. Elsewhere, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across parts of
MO and IL, in a zone of 850 mb warm advection out of the west, and
beneath the northwesterly flow aloft. ..Jewell.. 05/12/2019