SPC May 12, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce hail across parts of Texas on Monday. ...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move across northeastern states on Monday with
a 60-70 kt midlevel jet max over North Carolina. A surface low will
develop offshore, with a cold front clearing most of the East Coast
by 18Z. Farther south, the front will move slower into northern FL,
where around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE will exist, supporting a few
thunderstorms during the day. In general, veering 850 mb winds will
bring drier air across the East, which will reduce the thunderstorm
threat. To the west, an upper low will move into southwest TX during the
day, and into central TX overnight. Lift associated with this
feature along with gradual moisture return will result in scattered
storms from west to east throughout the period, with damaging hail
possible. ...Much of southwest, central, and southern TX...
Storms are expected to evolve early in the day over far west TX near
the upper low. Marginal hail is possible with the early activity. As
heating continues and the storms move east along the moist axis, an
uptick in severe hail intensity is possible. Very long hodographs
will exist, with 100+ kt 300 mb winds atop weak easterly surface
winds. These wind profiles suggest efficient, forward-tilting storms
capable of damaging hail through the evening and overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 05/12/2019 

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