SPC MD 614

MD 0614 Image

 Mesoscale Discussion 0614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019 Areas affected...northeast Mississippi/northern Alabama/southern
Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112027Z - 112130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms evolving over northeast Mississippi may pose local
severe/brief tornado risk this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Afternoon heating through broken cloud cover over the
discussion area has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s
locally over parts of northwest Alabama, where objective analysis
shows an axis of 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Storms have
continued to gradually increase near a weak frontal low over
northeast Mississippi, and will spread northeast across northwest
Alabama in the next couple of hours. Recent GWX (Columbus AFB) WSR-88D VWP reveals slightly stronger
shear across this region than areas farther south, with mid-level
west-southwesterlies near 50 kt. The enhanced shear appears to be
contributing to updraft rotation evident with stronger cells across
this area. While low-level shear remains weak -- thus suggesting only brief
tornado potential at best, risk for locally gusty/damaging winds
would exist with any of the stronger updrafts, as storms spread into
northwest Alabama and possibly southern Middle Tennessee over the
next couple of hours. ..Goss/Grams.. 05/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33358905 34218828 35148705 35318619 34788558 34088579 32888646 32448793 32578871 33358905 

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