SPC MD 612

MD 0612 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA…FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

MD 0612 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019

Areas affected...Southern/Central Georgia...far Southeast
Alabama...and the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111815Z - 112015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convective development occurring, associated with a
remnant MCV. Some localized wind gusts/small hail possible.

DISCUSSION...An MCV is tracking across portions of southern Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle. Diurnal heating and dew point
temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s F ahead of this feature have
led to destabilization of the airmass, with MLCAPE values in the
1500-2000 J/kg range along with little appreciable CIN. Regional
satellite/radar shows an arc of convective redevelopment occurring
in association with the MCV, along with somewhat disorganized
cellular development occurring in advance of this feature.
Currently, wind shear across the region remains marginal at best,
although the EVX VAD shows perhaps some localized MCV-related
enhanced shear, with 25 kt of 4-6 km shear. Trends in the
mesoanalysis suggest this minor MCV-related uptick in the shear may
continue to occur for the next few hours, leading to perhaps some
localized wind gusts/small hail. A watch is not anticipated at this
time.

..Karstens/Grams.. 05/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   30078445 30128499 30328523 31098521 31518537 31978586
            32368588 32958519 33458405 33678323 33418263 32408249
            31468303 30768314 30348306 29808305 29688353 29938413
            30078445 

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