SPC MD 611

MD 0611 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWEST ALABAMA

MD 0611 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat May 11 2019

Areas affected...southeast Texas into southern Louisiana/southern
Mississippi/southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111631Z - 111900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will become increasingly widespread across the
western and central Gulf Coast region into the afternoon, but expect
only locally stronger/severe storms embedded within the broader area
of convection.  A WW is not anticipated in the short term, but we
will monitor convective evolution.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a very moist low-level
airmass across the discussion area, with a weak surface front
extending from the Tennessee Valley southwest across western
Mississippi and then west-southwest across the western Gulf Coast
region.  Meanwhile, a remnant outflow -- associated with the MCV
moving across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle -- remains
evident over the northern and western Gulf.

A weak/subtle short-wave trough -- evident in WV imagery approaching
the lower Rio Grande Valley from the west -- is contributing to an
increase in low-level warm advection/QG forcing across the eastern
half of Texas at this time.  This ascent is manifesting as a steady
increase in convection from the Hill Country east across the Texas
Coast.  While widespread cloudiness has tempered
heating/destabilization across this portion of Texas, more scattered
cloud coverage into Louisiana and points east is resulting in
moderate destabilization.  Eventually, as the increase in ascent
spreads eastward, the evolution toward a broad zone of widespread
convection is anticipated.  

Despite the moist/destabilizing airmass, deep-layer wind field
remains tempered, with the latest LIX VWP showing flow only in the
20 to 30 kt range through the lower and middle troposphere -- and
only weak veering with height.  This -- combined with the
anticipated storm coverage suggests messy/multicellular convective
mode, and tempered overall severe risk.  As such, prospects for a
watch in the next hour or two remain muted -- but we will continue
to monitor environmental and convective evolution across this
region.

..Goss/Grams.. 05/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   28379535 28609583 29469573 30549508 31079453 31569215
            31638881 31358795 30558811 28978903 28949040 29369187
            29079380 28379535 

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