SPC May 11, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with severe wind gusts and hail are possible
from eastern Alabama to the Carolinas on Sunday. Other marginally
severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Gulf Coast
States and in the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. ...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on Sunday
as west to southwest mid-level flow remains from the southeastern
states into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the central Gulf Coast States and southern
Appalachian Mountains on Sunday. Ahead of this front, a moist
airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints generally from 65 to
70 F. In response to surface heating, moderate instability will
develop across much of the moist sector by midday. Scattered
thunderstorms should be ongoing along parts of the front from the
central Gulf Coast States into the southern Appalachian Mountains
during the morning. This activity is forecast to move eastward
across Georgia and the Carolinas in the early afternoon and to the
Atlantic coast by late afternoon. Although MCS development will be
possible, the more likely scenario would be for several short
line-segments to organize along and ahead of the front. A severe
threat will be possible in areas that destabilize the most. NAM forecast soundings from just south of Macon, Georgia
east-northeastward to south of Columbus, South Carolina from 18Z to
21Z on Sunday show MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg with 30 to 40
kt of 0-6 km shear. In addition, wind profiles are veered to the
west-southwest with strong speed shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. This
environment will be favorable for damaging wind gusts with the more
organized multicell line-segments. Some hail will be possible with
the stronger updrafts as well. The wind damage threat should be
greatest in areas where low-level lapse rates become the steepest
during the early afternoon. ...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level low will move across northwestern Mexico on Sunday.
At the surface, an inverted trough is forecast across far west Texas
extending northward into southeast New Mexico. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE values are expected to
reach about 1000 J/kg along the trough. Thunderstorms should
initiate in the higher terrain and move eastward across the southern
High Plains during the afternoon. The instability combined with
strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, evident on
forecast soundings, will be favorable for isolated large hail with
cells that rotate. A few marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible as well. The threat is expected to remain isolated so will
maintain a marginal risk area across the area. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Broyles.. 05/11/2019 

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