SPC MD 609

MD 0609 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY
MD 0609 Image

 Mesoscale Discussion 0609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Fri May 10 2019 Areas affected...Central and eastern NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101741Z - 101915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts and small hail may accompany
discrete cells along a cold front that will progress across the
Mohawk Valley this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initially formed near Syracuse along
a cold front that is marching east through the central portion of
the state. A narrow plume of destabilization has occurred
immediately ahead of the front with MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg amid
upper 60s to lower 70s surface temperatures. Abundant cloudiness and
substantially cooler boundary-layer conditions exist downstream
across much of eastern NY. Whether the destabilization can still
outpace the progressive nature of the cold front is uncertain.
Nevertheless, 30-40 kt 1-3 km AGL flow sampled by Binghamton and
Albany VWP data, increasing to around 50 kt behind the front per
Buffalo VWP, suggest that locally strong wind gusts and small hail
will be possible. A 31 mph wind gust was recently measured at KFZY
in Oswego County. ..Grams.. 05/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43607587 43757541 43837494 43697436 43317410 42437454 42087551 42017680 42237722 42627674 43187604 43607587 

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