SPC May 10, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind or hail are possible from Georgia
into the Carolinas on Sunday, with isolated activity across Alabama,
Mississippi, Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis...
A broad zone of west/southwest flow aloft will overspread the
southeastern states on Sunday as an upper low moves from the Upper
Mississippi Valley across the Great Lakes. Midlevel winds will
increase to 40-50 kts, enhancing deep-layer shear. At the surface,
low pressure is forecast to pivot from KY across WV during the day,
with a stationary front somewhere across VA or perhaps near the NC
border. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend roughly from the
Appalachians into the northern Gulf Coast by 00Z. Southwesterly
winds across the warm sector will maintain mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints, supporting areas of moderate instability across the
Slight Risk area. Elsewhere, an upper low will move across northwest Mexico, AZ and
NM, with scattered thunderstorms producing heavy rain and perhaps
small hail. ...Southeast into the Mid Atlantic...
While uncertainty exists regarding precise frontal positions and
possible early day precipitation (western areas), substantial flow
aloft will overspread a vast moist sector with areas of heating,
resulting in a damaging wind and hail threat during the day mainly
across GA, SC and NC. Storms are expected to be ongoing early in the day across LA, MS and
AL near the cold front. Sufficient instability will be in place for
at least an isolated severe threat. As the activity continues east,
it will encounter a heated air mass, with increasing storm coverage
and intensity possible. It should be noted that the ECMWF model has the stationary front
much farther north into VA with more pronounced shear east of the
low. This solution suggests severe storms, including supercells, may
affect parts of VA. Model trends will continue to be monitored in
later updates. In addition, a lack of early day convection across
AL/MS may indicate the need for a westward expansion of the Slight
Risk area in later updates. ..Jewell.. 05/10/2019 

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