SPC May 10, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms, some severe, are expected throughout
the period across much of the Southeast. Localized wind damage is
most probable. ...Synopsis...
A low amplitude trough aloft is forecast to move from the Arklatex
toward the Ohio Valley as an upper low moves southeastward across
the Northern Plains. A broad area of southwesterly 35-45 kt midlevel
winds will overspread a large area of upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of
a weak surface trough from eastern TX into northern AL/GA during the
day. The combination of a moist, unstable air mass coupled with
modest winds aloft will likely support areas of strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of at least localized wind damage during the
day and possibly into the evening. ...Southeast U.S...
Numerous thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Saturday morning,
from LA across MS, and possibly into northern AL and GA. This lends
uncertainty to the forecast, as parts of the area may be stabilized
with outflow early. Given an uncapped air mass, any heating will
lead to new development, either focused along the surface trough or
along existing outflow boundaries. Shear profiles are forecast to be
on the marginal side, but deep-layer mean winds around 30 kt will
maintain movement with any convective systems, with locally damaging
outflow winds. There may also be an area of enhanced low-level shear, with warm
advection profiles forecast across northern MS, AL, and GA during
the day, aided by southwesterly 850 mb winds of 25-30 kt. Storms
could acquire rotation, provided the air mass remains outflow-free. Although corridors of damaging winds are possible on Saturday,
substantial uncertainty exists regarding placement due to the
likelihood of multiple ongoing areas of storms. Therefore, will
maintain low probabilities of severe over an expanded area, with the
possibility of a Slight Risk in later updates. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Jewell.. 05/10/2019 

Read more

Be the first to comment on "SPC May 10, 2019 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook"

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*


Skip to toolbar