SPC May 10, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE... ...SUMMARY...
Strong storms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail are
possible on Friday across parts of southeast Texas, Louisiana, and
Mississippi. Other thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail
will be possible across the central Appalachians into upstate New
York. ...Synopsis...
A cutoff low will continue to retrograde toward the southwest across
California today, which will maintain southwesterly mid-level flow
across much of the southern Plains northeastward toward the Great
Lakes. This flow will become enhanced on the southern periphery of
a trough centered over the Hudson Bay vicinity, with 50-60 knot
500mb flow spreading into the Appalachians and Northeast. Another
shortwave trough will amplify while migrating toward the Dakotas
late. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Lake Ontario
south-southwestward to Deep South Texas at the beginning of the
forecast period and will shift southeastward during the day. Southeast of this front, moist low-level air will reside, with
dewpoint temperatures ranging from near 60 F in Pennsylvania to the
upper 70s F over northern Gulf of Mexico waters. This airmass will
support several areas of convection during the day, with some of
that activity expected to be ongoing at the start of the period over
Louisiana/Mississippi. ...Southern Louisiana/Mississippi...
An MCS currently over southeastern Texas is expected to migrate
eastward overnight and enter the risk area from the west early in
the forecast period. Models suggest that some northward retreat of
better boundary-layer moisture (south of a remnant outflow from
earlier convection) should commence near coastal areas, with the
interaction of this boundary and the forward propagating system
fostering a risk of isolated hail/wind and perhaps a tornado. The
eastward progression and longevity of this complex is in question -
CAMs weaken the system during the afternoon although the presence of
strong instability and organization along the remnant outflow may
result in the complex persisting longer than models depict. Any
subsequent severe threat will depend on the evolution of the MCS
during the morning and whether any upstream convection can persist
and move into the region during the afternoon. Marginal severe
probabilities remain in place for this scenario. ...Central Appalachians into southeastern New York...
Surface heating and confluence ahead of an approaching cold front
will foster scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon
and early evening. 40-kt deep shear and weak instability (~1000
J/kg MUCAPE) suggests some potential for storm organization, though
weak low-level flow suggests that storms will be outflow-dominant,
with upscale growth into a few linear bands possible. Downward
momentum processes may result in isolated damaging wind gusts with
stronger cells/bands. This activity should shift toward the
Atlantic coast overnight with a lessened severe risk. ..Cook/Marsh.. 05/10/2019 

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