SPC MD 451

MD 0451 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR FROM NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND PARTS OF NEW JERSEY
MD 0451 Image

 Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019 Areas affected...from northern North Carolina into southeast
Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261537Z - 261730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Conditions will become increasingly favorable for severe
storms today, with the greatest threat across eastern Virginia,
southeast Pennsylvania, and parts of New Jersey and Delaware.
Damaging winds appear likely, with a tornado or two possible
especially northern areas. The 1630Z outlook will reflect an upgrade
to ENH for parts of the MCD area, and one or more watches are
expected over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently surging eastward across
western PA and VA, with a warm front from far northern VA across MD
and DE. Satellite imagery indicates clearing, and strong heating is
occurring across the warm sector with CIN being rapidly eroded. In
addition, widespread pressure falls exceeding 1.5 mb/hr were noted. Storms are already forming near the moist axis, from northeast NC
across eastern VA and DE where dewpoints were solidly in the 60s F.
These storms may produce locally damaging winds as they move quickly
northeastward with favorable low-level lapse rates and deep-layer
shear. Later today, storms along the cold front will increase in intensity
as it encounters the heating air mass. A line of storms will result,
possibly a broken line of cells or QLCS, with damaging winds likely.
The strongest low-level shear will remain near the warm front, which
will lift northward into PA and NJ. Here, forecast soundings show
larger looping hodographs which may favor tornadoes, either with
supercells just ahead of or embedded within the line. In addition,
the relatively cool temperatures aloft near 700 mb will maximize
low-level instability which will also aid rotation in storms. ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 36687577 36287587 35997655 36097715 36597786 37307801 38137818 38957845 39767823 40297779 40677659 40697585 40517520 40107473 39797460 38847482 38327504 37627549 37027582 36947586 36687577 

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