SPC Apr 26, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A PORTION OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly late Saturday
afternoon and early evening across parts of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma through central and northern Arkansas. ...Northern Texas through southern Oklahoma and central through
northern Arkansas... Northern-stream shortwave trough now approaching the northern
Rockies will reach the central Plains early Saturday, before
continuing through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
during the afternoon and evening. This feature will provide the
impetus for a cold front to advance southward into the Southern
Plains and lower MS Valley. By early evening this front should
extend from a surface low over the OH Valley into northwest AR,
southeast OK and northwest TX. A dryline will extend from western
TX northward where it will intersect the cold front. Primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat for Saturday
is limited moisture return owing to recent Gulf frontal intrusion.
Nevertheless, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will spread
eastward through this region above modified continental polar air
with dewpoints generally in the 50s F. This will contribute to a
corridor of modest instability with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in
pre-frontal warm sector from northwest TX, southern OK into northern
and central AR. Elevated storms embedded within strong flow will
likely be ongoing from northern OK into southeast KS, and this
activity will continue east through the mid MS Valley during the
day. In wake of early storms the pre-frontal warm sector will likely
remain capped most of the day due to warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer. However, diabatic heating may eventually
weaken inhibition such that a few storms may develop along portions
of the southward-advancing cold front with most likely areas being
near the dryline/cold front intersection as well as farther east
from southeast OK into AR. Most of this region will be well south of
the stronger winds aloft, but the thermodynamic environment will
support a threat of isolated damaging wind and large hail, mainly
from late afternoon into the evening. Due to uncertainty regarding
extent of storm initiation and coverage, will maintain marginal risk
this update. Additional storms may develop overnight over a portion of OK within
zone of isentropic ascent and destabilization north of the front.
These storms will be elevated but could produce small to marginally
severe hail. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 04/26/2019 

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