SPC MD 440


MD 0440 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas affected...Far East-Central TX...Northern/Central LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

Valid 250708Z - 250815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
persists across far east-central TX and northern/central LA.
Convective trends will be monitored closely for downstream watch
issuance before 08Z.

DISCUSSION...Northern portion of the convective line has recently
surged forward as it interacts with a supercell that was previously
ahead of the line. This well-developed supercell has produced
several TDSs amidst a cycling low-level mesocyclone. Even with the
convective line overtaking this storm, tornadoes remain possible as
does a relatively higher threat for damaging wind gusts. Storm
motion estimate of 230 degrees at 40 kt takes this storm to the edge
of the watch around 0730Z. A less favorable thermodynamic
environment exists across far southern AR so severe storm
persistence into that region is uncertain. Convective trends will be
monitored closely.

Farther south, the line of storms has been less progressive thus
far. However, recent development ahead of the line and strengthening
mid-level flow approaching from southeast TX may promote faster
storm motion over the next few hours. Current storm motion takes
this portion of the line to the edge of the watch by 08Z.

Overall thermodynamic environment is less favorable downstream but
the well-organized nature of the convective line may be able to
compensate for this, resulting in a downstream threat for damaging
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Convective trends will be
monitored closely for possible downstream watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32569430 32989316 32859193 31879161 31129152 30429162
            30119236 30189396 30649440 32569430 

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