SPC Apr 25, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage and a couple
of tornadoes will persist over the central and eastern Gulf Coast
region through early evening. A marginal risk for a brief tornado
also exists over southern Illinois into southwest Indiana this
afternoon. ...Discussion... Primary change from previous outlook has been to add a marginal risk
for a brief tornado with low-topped storms crossing warm front this
afternoon over southern IL into southwest IN. See swomcd 0445 for
more detailed information. Otherwise, the main severe risk will
persist with storms moving along the Gulf Coast region where a
threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will continue
into the early evening. ..Dial.. 04/25/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ ...Southern LA/MS/AL to the FL Panhandle through tonight...
No substantial changes to the previous outlook. A midlevel trough
over AR/LA this morning will accelerate eastward by tonight as an
upstream wave amplifies from the Plains to the mid MS/lower OH
Valley region. Gradual phasing of the streams will favor deepening
and northeastward development of a cyclone (now in northeast AR) to
Lake Erie, as a trailing cold front progresses eastward across the
MS/OH Valleys and Gulf Coast. Pre-frontal convection will likely confine the richer low-level
moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s) to southern
LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. Weak-moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg) and effective bulk shear near 50 kt will support a
threat for clusters/supercells within a partially broken pre-frontal
band of storms near and east of the cold front. The moist low-level
environment and 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will favor a
threat for tornadoes with the stronger embedded circulations. Otherwise, damaging gusts can be expected with both supercells and
any embedded bowing segments through tonight. ...Mid South to the OH Valley this afternoon/evening...
Along the path of the surface cyclone, there will be modest
low-level moisture (low 60s dewpoints) and potentially weak
buoyancy. Cloud debris from the convection to the south will tend
to slow surface heating (especially northern MS to western TN),
midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, and effective bulk shear
will remain below about 35 kt. Thus, the potential for severe
storms appears too low to warrant introducing any outlook areas. 

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