SPC MD 438

MD 0438 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN TX…WESTERN LA

MD 0438 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...far eastern TX...western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250419Z - 250545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A limited/conditional risk for a damaging gust or two and
perhaps a tornado may accompany storms exhibiting some supercellular
structure/mid-level rotation.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery around 1110pm CDT shows a couple of
storms during the past hour exhibiting characteristics of
rotation/organization within an adequately moist airmass with
surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s north to the upper 60s
south.  KPOE VAD data shows strong speed shear in the low levels
(0-1 km shear 44kt) with an enlarged hodograph typical of a warm
advection profile/LLJ.  Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE seemingly exists
across the warm sector northeast of the storms over far eastern TX. 
As such, a couple of damaging gusts (near severe thresholds) are
possible.  A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with storms
exhibiting strong/persistent low-level rotation given the otherwise
supportive tendencies (i.e., strong low-level shear) in the
mesoscale environment.

..Smith/Grams.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29999433 31369436 32119350 32019281 30359325 30119356
            29999433 

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