SPC MD 434

MD 0434 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KENTUCKY…FAR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI…SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
MD 0434 Image

 Mesoscale Discussion 0434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Areas affected...western Kentucky...far southeastern
Missouri...southern Illinois...and far southwestern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241951Z - 242045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing convection may produce isolated instances of wind
damage. A WW issuance is not anticipated due to the isolated nature
of the threat. DISCUSSION...Surface heating, weakly confluent warm-sector low-level
flow, and convergence along synoptic surface boundaries has fostered
gradual deepening of convection across southeastern Missouri and
southern Illinois. These storms are in a moderately unstable
environment, with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Shear is relatively
weak, however, with 30-35 kt mid-level flow atop marginal low-level
flow resulting in only 30 knots of effective deep shear. This
suggest that storms should remain loosely organized, with the
isolated severe threat maximized near linear, outflow-dominant bands
that can evolve. The isolated nature of the threat precludes any WW
issuance at this time, though storms should propagate downstream
along the Lower Ohio Valley through sunset. ..Cook.. 04/24/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 38128912 38348826 38458722 38408682 38248653 38078645 37848663 37778683 37508735 37058806 36718891 36518975 36439038 36619055 36759060 36929058 37259035 37539004 37688986 38128912 

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