SPC MD 432


MD 0432 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...central into southeastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241511Z - 241715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A WW issuance may be needed in portions of the discussion
area - most likely from 16Z onward.

DISCUSSION...Mostly sub-severe convection continues currently amidst
a complicated surface pattern, with a remnant outflow extending from
near CLL to 40 S SAT to near DRT.  Surface-based convection persists
near the outflow, with one dominant cell over western Gonzales
county exhibiting signs of mid-level rotation.  Though low-level
wind fields remain weak, any favorable interaction between updrafts
associated with this convection along the remnant outflow may result
in a brief tornado.

Over time, strengthening low-level wind fields associated with
low-level cyclogenesis and approach of a mid-level wave centered
over northern Mexico will probably result in 1) stalling and/or slow
northward retreat of the outflow and 2) gradually increased
organization of convection.  Any storms near/south of this outflow
will be surface-based owing to near 70F dewpoints, while steepening
mid-level lapse rates will increase buoyancy and result in an
increased threat for all modes of severe.  North of the boundary, a
gradually organizing linear complex near SJT and other scattered
convection near HDO/SAT/AUS may pose a threat for marginally severe
hail and perhaps an isolated damaging wind gust.  Convective trends
continue to be monitored, and a WW issuance may be needed at some
point after 16Z or so.

..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   31460105 31520008 31419820 31049668 30489576 29839546
            28879575 28309648 27949798 27949940 28350026 29170094
            29720142 30350162 31040137 31190130 31460105 

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