MD 0428 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95… FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin
into north central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...
Valid 240135Z - 240230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
SUMMARY...Some hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts will
continue in stronger convection overspreading areas near and
southwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex through 9-11 PM.
DISCUSSION...Stronger near-surface convergence and frontogenetic
forcing supporting vigorous convective development remain roughly
aligned with the Interstate-20 corridor, from Midland into the
Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Within this activity, a couple of
small but organized mesoscale convective systems have evolved, with
broad embedded lower/mid tropospheric rotation evident. One of
these appears likely to overspread the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex
through 02-03Z, while the upstream system progresses into areas near
and southwest of Stephenville.
While MRMS MESH data suggest that this convection continues to
produce at least small to marginally severe hail, a transition to
increasing strong wind gusts appears underway. Given the
environment sampled in the 24/00z sounding from Fort Worth
(including weak lower/mid tropospheric flow), the more widespread
gusts may remain on the order of 35+ kt, which appears close to the
general eastward motion of the convective systems. However,
corridors of localized stronger gusts may be possible in association
with the continued evolution of the mesoscale convective vortices
through late evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32150280 32340156 32519975 33139811 33209669 32709652
32259691 31609862 31300048 31240279 32150280