SPC Apr 22, 2019 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NM
ACROSS WEST TX INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of mainly hail and damaging
winds are possible from southeast New Mexico into parts of west
Texas and southwest Oklahoma late this afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible across parts of
southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois. ...Southeast NM and TX South Plains to Southwest OK...
A cold front will initially settle southward and subsequently stall
across the region in an arcing west-to-east fashion. While an upper
trough digs southward over the Southwest Deserts and northwest
Mexico, a lead shortwave trough will spread northeastward and reach
west/southwest Texas by mid/late afternoon. This will contribute to
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon (~21Z) from
central and southeast New Mexico into parts of west Texas, where
heating will be strongest south of the front. Hail will be possible
with the eastern New Mexico storms, as well as into the Texas South
Plains. Although low-level winds will be weak, a brief tornado could occur
near the boundary before cells grow upscale into a possible MCS. The
greatest potential for damaging winds will likely be along the
boundary across the Texas South Plains/Low Rolling Plains, aided by
strong east/northeast surface winds just north of the boundary. A
few storms may remain strong to severe into far southwest OK, before
the air mass overturns with more widespread precipitation. ...Eastern IA to northern IL and southern WI...
A convectively augmented shortwave trough will move northeastward
over the Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. A surface
low will advance from Iowa into southern Wisconsin as a cold front
otherwise spreads eastward across the region. Southerly winds will
increase ahead of the low with a gradual moistening within the
pre-cold frontal warm sector. Warm sector dewpoints will generally
be in the 50s F, with guidance likely running a bit optimistic in
terms of late-day moistening. As lingering early-day clouds thin, forcing for ascent near the low
track is expected to support increasing surface-based thunderstorm
development this afternoon. While winds in the mid and upper levels
will not be strong, a low-level veering of relatively strong lower
tropospheric winds may result in a few supercells late this
afternoon and early evening. At least a few instances of severe
hail/wind are expected and a tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly
across far northeast Iowa and far northern Illinois into southern
Wisconsin. ..Guyer/Goss.. 04/22/2019 

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