SPC MD 418


MD 0418 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Areas affected...Parts of north central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220015Z - 220145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity capable of producing small hail and
a few strong wind gusts may persist, and possibly increase some, for
a period this evening.  However, overall, the threat still appears
marginal enough that a severe weather watch will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing small, but sustained cluster of thunderstorms
has accelerated some while advancing east-northeastward during the
past couple of hours, from near 20 to around 30 kt.  Activity has
been mostly post-cold frontal, aided by mid-level cooling and
sufficient boundary layer moisture to contribute to CAPE locally up
to around 1000-1500 J/kg.  Deep layer wind fields and shear are
mostly modest to weak, but initially steep lower/mid tropospheric
lapse rates have been sufficient to support mainly small hail and a
few strong wind gusts.  

It remains unclear how much longer this activity will maintain
strength as it spreads near/to the south and east of Hill City.  It
seems possible that it may weaken as the cold front overtakes the
dryline and supports the initiation of new thunderstorm activity
downstream, around the Hays, Russell, Smith Center and Beloit
vicinities.  It is possible that shear associated with strengthening
southerly 850 mb flow across this region could aid organization of
consolidating new development.  But any associated severe wind
threat probably will be limited by the onset of boundary layer
cooling, which likely will result in an increasingly marginal
thermodynamic environment for vigorous convection.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39949884 40019749 39509668 38279797 38069948 38480001
            39429953 39949884 

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