SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated wind damage
may develop across parts of the southern High Plains late Monday
afternoon through the overnight period.
...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level low will move across the Desert Southwest on Monday
as southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the southern
Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to stall in west
Texas, attendant from a low in southeast New Mexico. The models are
now in better agreement, developing instability along and south of
the front with thunderstorms initiating along the front in the late
afternoon. This convection is forecast to spread northeastward to
the cooler side of the boundary in the southern Texas Panhandle
during the evening. More convection is forecast to initiate and
persist into the overnight period. NAM forecast soundings from north
of Lubbock into the southeastern Texas Panhandle at 03Z/Tuesday show
MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/Kg with about 55 Kt of effective
shear. This should be sufficient for a severe threat. Cells may be
surface-based upon initiation with a potential for isolated damaging
wind gusts and large hail. As the storms move to the north side of
the boundary, large hail will be the primary threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight